Doha: QNB has expressed a positive outlook for global trade despite facing several headwinds. The bank highlights key factors underpinning global trade and its transition into a new phase of moderate expansion.

According to Qatar News Agency, QNB explained that a new investment cycle in artificial intelligence (AI) is emerging as a critical driver of global trade. AI-related goods are projected to account for approximately half of the growth in global merchandise trade by 2025. The demand for products such as semiconductors, data center equipment, and advanced electronics has surged, with global semiconductor sales alone reaching approximately USD 520-550 billion. This reflects the highly globalized and import-intensive nature of AI-related supply chains that rely on complex cross-border production networks. The continued strength in AI investment is expected to add around 0.5 percentage points to global trade growth in 2026, providing an important offset to ongoing geopolitical and policy-related challenges.

QNB also points out that global trade is supported by an ongoing reconfiguration of global supply chains. Despite more restrictive trade policies, particularly through non-tariff measures and industrial policies favoring domestic production, firms have adapted by redirecting trade flows instead of reducing them. Asia continues to be at the center of global manufacturing networks, accounting for nearly 60 percent of global manufacturing output. Intra-regional trade is expanding, and countries such as Vietnam, Thailand, and India are gaining market share in key export sectors. This trend is evident in the sharp increase in China's exports to ASEAN countries, which have more than doubled over the past decade to exceed USD 500 billion annually, underscoring the growing importance of regional production networks. Consequently, global trade is becoming more geographically diversified while remaining structurally supported by deeply integrated cross-border supply chains.

Moreover, cyclical conditions are becoming more supportive of global trade as the global manufacturing cycle stabilizes and the drag from inventory adjustment fades. Global trade volumes expanded by around 4.6 percent in 2025, reflecting a stronger-than-expected recovery in industrial activity. The earlier phase of inventory destocking, which weighed heavily on trade through 2023 and early 2024, has largely run its course, with firms shifting toward gradual inventory rebuilding. This transition is lifting import demand, particularly in trade-intensive sectors such as machinery, electronics, and intermediate goods, where cross-border production remains deeply embedded. Improving trends in manufacturing surveys and export orders suggest that external demand is stabilizing, reinforcing the cyclical recovery and providing additional momentum to global trade.

QNB concluded by stating that the outlook for global trade remains cautiously positive, supported by a combination of structural and cyclical factors. While geopolitical tensions and policy uncertainty continue to pose risks, the strength of the AI-driven investment cycle, the stabilization of manufacturing dynamics, and the adaptability of global supply chains are helping to sustain momentum. As a result, global trade is expected to continue expanding this year.